The key factor in transferring information from short-term to long-term memory is the development of associations between the new information and schemata already available in memory. And not just repetition. (23)

1. the most effective way to remember something is by using a mnemonic device (25)

2. To see the options faced by foreign leaders as these leaders see them, one must understand their values and assumptions and even their misperceptions and misunderstandings. (33)

3. the most productive uses of comparative analysis are to suggest hypotheses and to highlight differences, not to draw conclusions. (40)

4. Once an experienced analyst has the minimum information necessary to make an informed judgment, obtaining additional information generally does not improve the accuracy of his or her estimates. Additional information does, however, lead the analyst to become more confident in the judgment, to the point of over- confidence. (52)

5. recognize when to change your mind: learn from surprises: Analysts should keep a record of unexpected events and think hard about what they might mean (73)

6. There are two basic tools for dealing with complexity in analysis: decomposition and externalization. (85)